Met Office defends big freeze forecast decision
THE Met Office has defended its decision not to make public a long-range forecast which predicted "an exceptionally cold" winter.
The forecaster, which has its headquarters near Exeter's Sowton Industrial Estate, told the Cabinet Office in October that temperatures would plunge lower than usual, and the winter would be longer than average.
But after it was criticised for predicting a "barbecue summer" which turned out to be a washout in 2009, the Met Office stopped issuing seasonal forecasts, which detail general trends expected for three-month periods.
Spokeswoman Helen Chivers said the decision to switch to monthly predictions had been in response to public consultation.
"We stopped issuing public seasonal forecasts back in March 2010 because the public did not want them and told us that monthly forecasts would be more useful," she said.
"Clearly there are some organisations which do find seasonal forecasts useful for long-term planning, such as energy companies or the Government.
"Our monthly forecasts have been shown to be very accurate and are updated constantly. Our forecast issued at the end of October warned of the cold weather expected to come in at the end of November, for example."
The Met Office was criticised for its decision not to make public the winter warning by Roger Harrabin, a BBC weather and environment analyst.
He said: "With Britain shivering through a third winter in a row, shouldn't the weather forecasters have warned us well in advance? Why didn't the Met Office tell us?
"The truth is it did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October. But we weren't let in on the secret because the Met Office no longer publishes its seasonal forecasts due to the ridicule it suffered for predicting a barbecue summer in 2009."
The BBC announced last year that it was considering dropping the Met Office as its official forecaster after 87 years. But in July it extended the contract for a further five years.
In October, independent forecaster Positive Weather Solutions said the 2010-11 winter would be long and severe.
The Met Office says warmer temperatures will be felt in Devon this week, with highs of 8C during the day, with the possibility of some slight frosts at night and some hill snow.
Persistent rain is expected tomorrow.
6 Comments
by Steve, Exwick
Thursday, January 06 2011, 10:25AM
“Thanks TA
With respect, I think you would be the first to admit that many of the things on your list are arguable, and pretty subjective, rather than solid evidence of either fitness for purpose, or I'm confused as to which, in your opinion support an argument for privatisation.
......and I would suggest that if there are management failings which are so profound as to render the current performance of the Met "not fit for purpose" - it does not neccessarily follow that these should or could be remedied by privatisation.
What do you think would be achieved by a sell-off? A temporary injection of funds for sure - but would this be negated by the longer term costs of paying the private sector for the services the Met currently provides - which of course includes information provided to the military?”
by T A Griffin, Exeter, Devon, England
Thursday, January 06 2011, 7:05AM
“Very good point made by Steve of Exwick. I like to keep my contributions brief but here goes with some reasons:
Funded by the taxpayer
Organises meeting to discuss Global Warming and then flies in the delegates
Spends millions on Computer System which needs upgrading because not 'big' enough
Was brought to Devon to help with local employment, yet most jobs for locals were cleaning and security
Is a job creation scheme for naval personnel
Responsible for the appalling weather lighting structure at Sowtin which changes colour to reflect the temperature
Will not release weather forecasts because fearful of bad publicity when they get it wrong
Persist in warnings of Global Warming
Send their 'scientists' to all parts of the globe to tell us that it is man made (ironic)
Should be privatized mainly because why fund it from the taxpayer, why should the taxpayer fund the Met Office, one good reason, anybody!”
by PJG, mid devon
Thursday, January 06 2011, 12:15AM
“"getting the forecast wrong is not a good enough reason" of course it is, what's the point of a weather forecasting agency that won't forecast because it's afraid it gets it wrong so many times. Would you employ a financial adviser that consistently got it wrong and lost all your money?”
by Steve, Exwick
Wednesday, January 05 2011, 8:35PM
“Sorry TA - can you expand on that one for us? You say the Met is no longer fit for purpose - but the only evidence you offer to support your assertion is the effect on house prices of high-earners moving out of the SE ( which includes those working in the city of London no?)
So, not fit for purpose - how so (and simply getting the forecast wrong is not a good enough reason)”
by T A Griffin, Exeter, Devon, England
Wednesday, January 05 2011, 6:50PM
“It really is time that the Met Office was sold off. It is no longer fit for purpose, and all that has happened is that many of their staff were paid to move down to Exeter, made massive profits at the expense of the taxpayer on the sale of their former homes, and totally ruined the housing market down here by paying inflated prices for the homes they bought here.”
by PJG, mid devon
Wednesday, January 05 2011, 2:32PM
“The MET office stopped issuing forecasts, what's the point then? Might as well close down and save the money. Anyone who wants the info can google it anyway.”