Social care 'timebomb' as city population ages
Debra Lapthorne, Plymouth's director of public health, said national and local planners need to make radical changes to prepare for population changes over the next 20 years.
Her annual public health report predicts the number of people over 65 receiving community-based care in Plymouth will rise from 4,746 currently to 7,474 in 2025.
By 2028, it is predicted that more than one in five of the city's population will be over 65 – 58,2000 out of 292,600.
This is a huge increase on the 2006 estimate of 39,400.
Ms Lapthorne said: "There's a view expressed nationally about the growing and aging population. The generational change is phenomenal.
"There's a view expressed that the time bomb will be completely unaffordable.
"The changes expected in the next 20 years will mean fundamental changes in the way social care is funded, commissioned and provided to the local population.
"We wanted to look at that in more detail and see if we can get ready for it so it doesn't become a major problem."
She said that as people's health improves generally the gap between retirement and death is growing.
She added: "Many more people are moving into retirement years as relatively fit and healthy adults. Our modelling suggests that the aging population will mean delaying the spend for the NHS as most people use most of the healthcare resource they are going to in the last six to 12 months of their life.
"However, for social care services the picture may be quite different."
Her report sets out key challenges that city agencies, including health services, the council and voluntary services, need to address.
These include increasing the social care workforce, greater investment in support for carers and for the local strategic partnership (LSP) to lead debate on the issues in all sectors of Plymouth's population.
Ms Lapthorne said: "The best way to plan for the future is understanding what will come.
"One of the reasons I'm issuing the challenges I am this year, particularly around social care workforce, is we need to be thinking much more collectively about how we ensure health and social care services are fit for change."
Her report identifies "striking differences" between the number of people accessing social care in the city's richer and poorer areas – showing poorer areas will be hardest hit by an overburdened service.
The report states that someone aged over 65 in Efford is three times more likely to be referred than an older person living in Tamerton Foliot – 151 per 1,000 compared with 40 per 1,000.
There will also be a 67 per cent increase in the number of people with disabilities over the next 20 years, according to The King's Fund, a charitable foundation which researches health issues.
For Plymouth, this would mean an increase from 6,028 clients with a physical disability receiving social care now to 10,066 in 2028.
The World Health Organisation estimates that by 2020, the burden of mental health problems on society will outstrip all physical disorders except for heart disease.
It is predicted that the number of people with dementia in Plymouth in 2025 will have risen to 4,277 from 2,912 this year.
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